VanEck Bets Big on Bitcoin’s 2026 Comeback Amid 2025 Slump

Bitcoin’s taking a beating in 2025, lagging the Nasdaq 100 Index by a brutal 50% year-to-date. So why is VanEck, a heavyweight in investment management, so bullish on a 2026 rebound? Let’s unpack the data, the daring predictions, and the potential pitfalls that could make or break this forecast.

• Current Struggle: Bitcoin trails the Nasdaq 100 by 50% in 2025 performance.
• 2026 Prediction: VanEck foresees Bitcoin as a top performer, driven by liquidity and macro shifts.
• Key Factors: Historical cycles, institutional adoption, and regulatory clarity fuel optimism.

Bitcoin’s 2025 Blues: A Temporary Setback?

Right now, Bitcoin’s price action is a sore spot for hodlers. Down 50% compared to the Nasdaq 100 Index in 2025, it’s clear that broader market risk aversion and liquidity constraints are dragging the king of crypto through the mud. Investors are shying away from high-risk assets, and with less easy money floating around, Bitcoin’s feeling the pinch. But VanEck’s David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions, isn’t sweating it. He sees this gap as a golden opportunity, as highlighted in a recent analysis on Bitcoin’s potential recovery predicting a strong comeback by 2026.

“Bitcoin is lagging the Nasdaq 100 Index by roughly 50% year-to-date, and that dislocation is setting it up to be a top performer in 2026,”

Schassler argues. His reasoning? As liquidity returns and currency debasement—think inflation or excessive money printing—ramps up, Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins positions it as a hedge against eroding fiat value. For those new to the game, Bitcoin’s design counters the problem of governments printing money endlessly, a feature that’s got Schassler buying in. He adds,

“As debasement ramps, liquidity returns, and Bitcoin historically responds sharply. We have been buying.”

But let’s not pop the champagne just yet. Macro forecasts aren’t set in stone, and if global markets take a nosedive or central banks tighten the screws harder, Bitcoin’s current blues could drag on. The question is whether these temporary headwinds are just a bump or a brick wall.

Why 2026? Cycles, Consolidation, and Catalysts

Bitcoin’s price history isn’t random—it often follows a four-year cycle tied to halving events. For the uninitiated, a halving cuts the reward miners get for adding new Bitcoins to the network, slashing the supply growth rate. Fewer new coins mean scarcity, and if demand holds or grows, prices typically climb. Think of it like limited-edition sneakers: less stock, same hype, higher value. Post-2020 halving, Bitcoin rocketed from $9,000 to nearly $69,000 in 18 months. If history rhymes, 2026—post the 2024 halving—could see a similar setup.

Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s lead of Digital Assets Research, tempers expectations, though. He doesn’t predict a wild moonshot or a devastating crash for 2026 but rather a steady build-up.

“That pattern suggests 2026 is more likely a consolidation year than a melt-up or a collapse,”

Sigel explains. Translation: Bitcoin might not make your heart race with insane gains or losses but could lay a solid foundation for future growth. For veteran investors, this might feel like a yawn, but for newcomers, it’s a chance to get in without the gut-wrenching volatility of past cycles.

Macro Trends and Gold’s Glittering Clue

Beyond Bitcoin’s internal rhythms, the bigger financial picture plays a massive role. Think of global money flows like water in a garden—too little, and risk assets like Bitcoin wither; too much, and they bloom. Right now, with tight liquidity and cautious sentiment, the garden’s parched. But Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, stresses that these macro forces—interest rates, liquidity trends, and risk appetite—will remain the biggest drivers for Bitcoin and Ethereum through 2026.

“The strongest fundamental drivers of BTC and ETH in 2026 will remain macroeconomic,”

Lienkha notes, adding,

“In the short and medium term, major cryptocurrencies remain heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions—particularly interest rates, liquidity trends, and broader risk sentiment.”

Then there’s gold, the old-school safe haven, screaming past $4,500 per ounce in 2025—a 70% jump year-to-date—with projections hitting $5,000 by 2026. This surge isn’t just a shiny distraction; it signals a growing hunger for assets outside the fiat system during economic uncertainty. Bitcoin, often called “digital gold” for its scarcity and store-of-value traits, could ride this wave. If gold’s rally is the traditional war cry, Bitcoin might just be the rebel with a cause—disrupting centralized finance with decentralization.

Institutional Tailwinds: The Big Money Bet

Here’s where things get juicy. Corporations are increasingly eyeing Bitcoin for treasury allocations, meaning they’re stashing some of their cash reserves in crypto. Pair that with clearer regulatory frameworks emerging across jurisdictions, and you’ve got a recipe for mainstream momentum. Lienkha is bullish on this front, predicting a tidal wave of traditional finance jumping in.

“We are likely to see a significant rise in the involvement of banks and other financial institutions in the market in 2026,”

he states. This isn’t just hot air—when banks and institutions play ball, they bring legitimacy, liquidity, and stability to a market often slammed as a Wild West casino. It’s the difference between a shady back-alley poker game and a regulated Vegas table. If this pans out, 2026 could be the year Bitcoin sheds its speculative skin and gets taken seriously by the suits.

Ethereum and Altcoins: Complementary or Competitive?

While Bitcoin holds the crown as the ultimate store of value and decentralization champ, let’s not sleep on Ethereum and other altcoins carving out their own niches. Ethereum’s smart contracts power decentralized apps (dApps)—think of them as programmable agreements that run without middlemen—positioning it as a backbone for Web3 innovation. With upgrades post-Merge boosting scalability, ETH could split institutional interest with Bitcoin, each winning in different arenas by 2026. Solana’s speed or Polkadot’s interoperability also fill gaps Bitcoin doesn’t aim to address. As Bitcoin maximalists, we root for BTC’s dominance, but the broader blockchain revolution thrives on these diverse players.

The Flip Side: Why 2026 Might Not Be Bitcoin’s Year

Let’s cut the crap—Bitcoin isn’t a magic money tree, and 2026 won’t bail out everyone who FOMO’d in at the peak. There are real risks that could derail even VanEck’s rosy outlook. Regulatory overreach is a big one. If the U.S. pulls a China and slams down a 2021-style crypto ban, or if a major exchange hack rattles confidence, prices could tank. Then there’s the environmental angle—Bitcoin mining’s energy hunger remains a lightning rod for criticism. If governments push hard on green policies, miners could face crackdowns, slowing network growth.

Macro shocks are another wildcard. An unexpected interest rate spike or a global financial meltdown could keep liquidity tight, choking risk assets like Bitcoin. And don’t forget scalability—Bitcoin’s network still struggles with transaction speed and cost compared to newer chains. If adoption outpaces tech upgrades, user frustration could cap growth. The fundamentals look damn interesting, but they’re not a guaranteed jackpot.

Key Questions and Takeaways on Bitcoin’s 2026 Outlook

• Why is Bitcoin underperforming traditional markets in 2025?
  Bitcoin’s down 50% against the Nasdaq 100 Index due to investor risk aversion and limited liquidity in global markets.
• What’s behind the optimism for Bitcoin’s recovery in 2026?
  VanEck highlights returning liquidity, currency debasement, and Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle as drivers for a strong rebound and consolidation phase.
• How do global financial trends affect Bitcoin and Ethereum?
  Interest rates, liquidity levels, and market risk sentiment heavily influence crypto prices, often mirroring broader asset class movements.
• Can institutional adoption reshape the crypto landscape by 2026?
  Increased bank and corporate involvement, alongside clearer regulations, could bring stability, legitimacy, and liquidity to the market.
• Does gold’s record rally signal a Bitcoin boom?
  Gold’s climb to $4,500 per ounce reflects demand for safe-haven assets, potentially boosting Bitcoin’s appeal as a digital alternative to fiat.
• What risks could sabotage Bitcoin’s 2026 comeback?
  Regulatory crackdowns, macroeconomic shocks, energy debates, and scalability issues could undermine even the most bullish forecasts.

Bitcoin’s road is never a straight line, and 2025’s rough patch is just another twist in the saga. But if VanEck and YouHodler’s insights hold water, 2026 might be the chapter we remember as the turning point—when digital assets flexed their muscle and showed centralized systems what disruption really means. Or it could be another cycle of hype and heartbreak. Only time—and the markets—will tell.