Bitcoin Price Echoes 2018 Bear Market: Is a 2025 Reversal in Sight?

Bitcoin has stumbled into treacherous territory, trading at roughly $65,100 after a jaw-dropping 50% plunge from its October 2025 peak of $126,080. With market fear at a fever pitch and technical patterns harking back to past crashes, crypto analyst Osemka suggests we might be inching toward a bottom—though not without enduring more pain first.

• Haunting Pattern: Bitcoin’s chart reveals a descending trend of lower highs, mirroring the grueling 2018 bear market bottom.
• Critical Threshold: A drop below $60,000 could flush out weak sellers in a final “liquidity sweep.”
• Subtle Optimism: Bullish divergence on key indicators hints that selling pressure might be fading, signaling a potential turnaround.

Charting the Descent: Unpacking the Technical Setup

In a recent breakdown shared on X, crypto analyst Osemka pointed out an unsettling parallel between Bitcoin’s current price behavior and the 2018 bear market bottom. That year, following the 2017 retail frenzy, Bitcoin cratered to $3,200, dragging investors through a prolonged period of hopelessness before any recovery materialized. Since February 2025, Bitcoin has been sketching a similar downward trend of lower highs, unable to surpass prior peaks and instead hitting a wall of selling pressure with each attempted rally.

For those less familiar with chart analysis, picture this descending pattern as a staircase sloping downward. Every time Bitcoin tries to step up, it’s shoved back by sellers, carving out a series of lower highs. Osemka warns this grinding decline could push Bitcoin below the pivotal $60,000 mark—a level that’s both a psychological barrier and a technical hotspot. Slipping under it might trigger what’s known as a “liquidity sweep,” a market move akin to a broom sweeping out jittery sellers by triggering stop-loss orders and panic trades. It’s a harsh but often necessary purge before the market can find its footing.

A Glimmer Amid the Gloom: Bullish Divergence Explained

Despite the relentless downward pressure, there’s a faint signal of relief in what’s called a “bullish divergence” forming across multiple timeframes. Here’s the breakdown for newcomers: while Bitcoin’s price keeps dipping to fresh lows, momentum tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are painting higher lows. RSI measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold, while MACD tracks trend changes—together, they gauge the market’s energy. This mismatch suggests the selling wave might be running out of steam, even if the price hasn’t flipped yet. Think of it as a runner slowing down before pivoting—still losing ground, but with waning force.

Osemka tempers any excitement, stressing that this isn’t a green light for an immediate surge. Bitcoin could still trickle lower for weeks, much like the drawn-out surrender of late 2018. For long-term holders, this setup might stir cautious intrigue, but for those new to the space watching their investments shrink, it’s a nerve-wracking wait. Patience isn’t just advisable—it’s non-negotiable.

Market Mood: Fear Grips Investors

If the charts don’t have you on edge, the overall sentiment surely will. The Fear and Greed Index, a metric capturing investor psychology from 0 (total panic) to 100 (blind optimism) by analyzing factors like price volatility and social media activity, is languishing at a dismal 11—squarely in “extreme fear” zone. That’s the kind of dread that makes you think of jumping ship, not unlike the bleakest moments of Bitcoin’s past downturns. Wider economic turbulence isn’t helping: climbing interest rates, recession whispers, and global unrest are pummeling riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Worsening the outlook, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs—investment funds that track Bitcoin’s price, allowing institutions to invest without holding the asset directly—have recorded net outflows for five consecutive weeks. These ETFs, such as Grayscale’s GBTC, reflect Wall Street’s temperature. When they’re offloading, it often means big players are pulling back, which can spark a chain reaction of retail fear. It’s a harsh signal that even as Bitcoin gains mainstream traction, it’s still vulnerable to the broader financial climate’s mood swings.

Looking Back: What 2018 Teaches Us

Bitcoin’s story is one of dramatic highs and punishing lows, and the current setup feels like a grim rerun of 2018. That bear market came on the heels of a retail-driven bubble, inflated by initial coin offering (ICO) scams and wild speculation, only to implode under regulatory crackdowns and over-leveraged traders. The 2022 crash, by contrast, was a quicker stab, fueled by catastrophes like the FTX collapse and Terra/Luna’s failure, alongside central banks hiking rates to curb inflation. Now, in 2025, Osemka sees us closer to 2018’s slow erosion—a lingering comedown from the speculative fever that drove Bitcoin to $126,080.

Yet, there’s a crucial distinction. In 2018, Bitcoin was a fringe curiosity with scant institutional presence. Today, with ETFs, corporate adopters like MicroStrategy, and thicker market liquidity, a bottom could lay the groundwork for a more robust comeback. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves—descending patterns don’t always resolve with a neat bounce. Some analysts argue we could stagnate sideways for months if economic conditions sour further, a sobering counter to Osemka’s historical parallel.

Ripples Beyond Bitcoin: Altcoins, Regulation, and Macro Risks

A plunge below $60,000 wouldn’t just shake Bitcoin holders—it could send shockwaves through the wider crypto sphere. Altcoins, often more erratic, might suffer sharper declines, though ecosystems like Ethereum could attract funds as investors pivot to decentralized finance (DeFi) for yield in a risk-averse climate. Stablecoins, serving purposes Bitcoin doesn’t, might also see inflows as temporary shelters. Meanwhile, regulatory shadows loom large. If agencies like the SEC tighten rules citing “investor safety” after a dip, or if global tax policies on crypto harden, it could stifle any rebound hopes.

On the macro front, Bitcoin’s tie to risk assets means a strengthening US dollar—check trends in the DXY index—or a confirmed recession scare could drag it deeper, no matter the technical signals. These outside forces are a stark reminder that for all its rebellious, decentralized ethos, Bitcoin isn’t fully untethered from the traditional economy’s whims.

Bitcoin’s Bigger Picture: A Defiant Disruptor

Stepping back, even in these punishing times, Bitcoin stands as a bold challenge to a flawed financial order. Each bear market acts like a crucible, burning off shaky projects and forcing the ecosystem to evolve—think of it as a turbocharged Darwinism, speeding us toward a truly decentralized future. But we must face the ugly side too: price swings that deter mainstream adoption, whispers of market rigging, and regulatory fog that keeps mass trust at bay. It’s not just about whether Bitcoin will recover, but whether the surrounding infrastructure—ETFs, altcoin innovations, scaling solutions—can maintain credibility through the darkness.

Bear markets also refine Bitcoin’s narrative as a store of value. Historically, they’ve stripped away speculative froth, leaving behind a leaner, more resilient asset. With every crash, Bitcoin adapts, proving its staying power against centralized systems. Yet, the volatility remains a bitter pill for the risk-averse, and that’s a hurdle we can’t gloss over.

Signals to Monitor Moving Forward

What should you keep tabs on? Federal Reserve rate decisions are a big one—any sign of softening could buoy risk assets like Bitcoin. ETF flow patterns will clue us into whether institutional money is ready to pounce on a discount. And that $60,000 line—if breached, brace for either a swift shakeout or a prolonged slog. Bitcoin’s trajectory is never predictable; it revels in chaos, often outsmarting both optimists and pessimists before charting its own path.

Key Takeaways and Burning Questions

• What does Bitcoin’s descending pattern signal for its immediate future?
  It points to persistent selling pressure, echoing the 2018 bear market, and suggests Bitcoin might slide below $60,000 before stabilizing for a potential recovery.
• Why does bullish divergence spark cautious hope among Bitcoin investors?
  It indicates fading selling momentum despite lower prices, a frequent precursor to a bottom or reversal, though the exact timing remains a gamble.
• How do US Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows influence market dynamics?
  Five weeks of withdrawals show institutional hesitance, amplifying the “extreme fear” sentiment and piling on downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
• What could a drop below $60,000 mean for the market?
  It might act as a final purge of weak sellers through a liquidity sweep, sparking short-term chaos but possibly paving the way for a rebound.
• How do wider economic forces affect Bitcoin’s current woes?
  Rising rates, a strong dollar, and recession fears are battering risk assets, proving Bitcoin isn’t fully insulated from traditional market storms.
• Does Bitcoin still embody financial rebellion during a downturn?
  Damn right—its decentralized roots defy the old guard, but its wild volatility and external vulnerabilities show it’s no painless path to freedom.

Bitcoin’s 2025 saga is unfolding as another harsh test. Whether you’re a rookie rattled by the bloodshed or a veteran who’s endured uglier cycles, the takeaway is blunt: grit your teeth and stay vigilant. Osemka’s insights offer a grounded view of a grinding descent, yet those flickers of bullish divergence murmur of eventual relief. We’re not peddling dreams of instant wealth or visions of collapse—just slicing through the clutter with raw facts and sharper realities. Bitcoin’s fight for disruption isn’t over; it’s just navigating a savage twist in the road.