Solana Usage Hits Records as SOL Stalls Below $100 on FTX Sell Pressure

Solana is doing the one thing traders keep pretending should move price on its own: getting used. On-chain activity is ripping, stablecoin volume is booming, and user engagement keeps climbing — yet SOL is still stuck below the psychologically loaded $100 mark like a coin with ankle weights.

• Price lag, network strength: SOL is stuck below $100 despite record on-chain activity.
• FTX overhang: estate sell pressure is still dragging on market sentiment.
• ETF flows cooled: institutional demand has weakened for six straight months.
• Alpenglow could shift the narrative: a major upgrade aims to cut finality to near-instant levels.

At last check, SOL was trading at $83.80, down 1.82% over 24 hours, leaving Solana in 7th place by market capitalization. The token has been boxed into an $80–$90 range for roughly four months, with repeated failures in the $97–$100 resistance zone. Short-term support sits around $82–$83, initial upside resistance is seen near $85.70–$88, and traders are watching $87.80 as a tactical inflection point. So far, though, the market has treated that level like a line painted in chalk.

Solana Struggles Below $100 Despite Record On-Chain Growth

Solana network activity keeps setting records

The strange part is that Solana’s fundamentals are not weak. They’re strong enough to make the price action look almost insulting. The network processed a record 10.1 billion transactions in Q1 2026, while average daily non-vote transactions — meaning actual user activity, not validator bookkeeping — hit roughly 112.6 million, up 50% quarter over quarter. That matters because non-vote transactions are a much cleaner sign of real demand than raw transaction counts, which can sometimes be padded by network spam or mechanical churn.

That’s why analysts described the data as “evidence of real user activity rather than spam-driven throughput.” In plain English: this is not just a chain flexing its TPS muscles for a vanity metric. People are actually using the thing.

Stablecoin activity tells a similar story. Solana handled about $650 billion in stablecoin transaction volume in February alone, roughly 3x January’s level. Stablecoins are dollar-linked tokens like USDC and USDT, and higher volume usually means more trading, payments, remittances, or DeFi settlement activity. Solana reportedly even surpassed Ethereum on an adjusted weekly stablecoin volume basis, and accounted for about 41% of spot trading volume among leading layer-1 networks in Q1. Daily active users were also said to be more than 4x higher than early 2023.

That’s the kind of data that says Solana’s network effects are compounding even as the token price stays pinned down. Or, as one market observer put it, “Solana’s ‘network effects’ appear to be compounding even as the token’s price remains constrained.”

Why SOL price is still stuck below $100

Here’s the part where crypto reminds everyone that good tech does not magically print green candles. Markets care about supply, demand, and timing — often in that order. Solana has a real demand story, but it also has a very annoying supply story, and that story is still being written by the FTX estate.

The bankruptcy estate is estimated to hold about $321 million in SOL and is expected to sell roughly $16–$17 million per month through 2028. That creates a persistent overhang. It’s not a dramatic one-day dump, but a slow, grinding release of tokens into the market. In crypto, that can be almost worse. Traders hate uncertainty, and they hate the idea of a seller with a long runway. It’s the financial equivalent of trying to lift weights while someone keeps leaning on the bar.

That pressure has helped keep the Solana price trapped in a narrow band even while the chain itself looks increasingly busy and relevant. The result is a widening gap between fundamentals and price action — strong usage on one side, mediocre market response on the other.

ETF demand has not been much help either. Reported Solana ETF inflows fell for six consecutive months, dropping from $419 million in November 2025 to just $34 million in April 2026. That’s a brutal fade. JP Morgan Research still sees a bigger endgame, suggesting Solana ETF assets could reach several billion dollars by the end of 2026, but it also said monthly inflows above $100 million may be needed to keep that thesis alive.

So yes, Solana may be attracting attention from users, traders, and some institutions. But attention is cheap. Sustained capital inflows are what move the scoreboard.

Alpenglow could be the next real catalyst

The most immediate technical catalyst is the Alpenglow upgrade. It entered validator testing on May 11 and is designed to reduce transaction finality to around 150 milliseconds, with a target of 100 milliseconds. Finality is the point at which a transaction is considered permanently settled and cannot be reversed. Faster finality means a better user experience for payments, DeFi, trading, gaming, and any application where speed is the whole damn point.

Mainnet rollout is expected in Q3 2026. That makes Alpenglow “the most immediate catalyst for shifting the market’s focus from macro headwinds back to product-driven performance.” And that’s not just PR fluff. If Solana can keep proving real demand on-chain while making the network even faster, it strengthens its claim as a serious settlement layer rather than just a fast chain with a good marketing department.

That’s also where Solana has always had a legitimate edge. It is not trying to be Bitcoin, and it does not need to be. Bitcoin is the hardest money game in crypto; Solana is aiming for high-throughput financial plumbing. Low fees, rapid settlement, and high activity make more sense for payments, stablecoins, DeFi, and consumer apps than for digital gold. Different tools, different jobs. Not everything needs to wear orange sunglasses and pretend to be the same asset class.

Regulation may help the market finally catch up

There is also a regulatory angle that could matter a lot more than most traders want to admit. Proposed CLARITY legislation could classify Solana as a commodity. That would be a meaningful upgrade from the usual U.S. regulatory fog, where projects often get stuck between agency turf wars, legal uncertainty, and a general lack of common sense.

For institutional investors, clearer classification matters. It can reduce legal risk, improve product structuring, and make long-term allocations easier to justify. If Solana gets a cleaner regulatory lane while its on-chain metrics keep improving, the market may eventually stop underpricing it so aggressively.

That does not mean the path is guaranteed. Solana still carries baggage from past outages, centralization criticisms, and the broader crypto habit of confusing speed with virtue. Critics will also point out that high throughput alone does not prove lasting value capture. Fair enough. A busy chain is not automatically a valuable token. Sometimes it is just a chain with a lot of activity and not enough buyers willing to pay up for it.

What the $100 line really means

Right now, $100 is the line that could change the conversation. Solana has repeatedly failed to break above the $97–$100 resistance zone, and that ceiling has become both technical and psychological. Reclaiming it would not magically solve everything, but it would signal that the market is finally willing to look beyond the FTX overhang and muted ETF participation.

If SOL can clear $100, analysts see possible upside toward $125–$175. That range is not a prophecy and it is certainly not a guarantee. Crypto price targets are often just polite fiction wearing a suit. Still, it reflects a real point: once a market stops obsessing over a stubborn ceiling, momentum can shift fast.

For now, SOL remains about 71% below its all-time high near $295. That gap is a reminder that even strong network growth does not erase prior speculation, supply dynamics, or market fatigue. Solana’s current setup is a classic case of strong fundamentals being offset by supply overhang and muted ETF participation.

“highlighting a widening gap between fundamentals and price action.”

“Solana’s unusually strong on-chain metrics can ultimately overpower persistent supply and demand headwinds tied to the FTX estate and fading ETF inflows.”

“cautious optimism”

“the key line that could change the conversation”

Key takeaways and questions

Why is SOL still below $100?
Persistent sell pressure from the FTX estate and weakening ETF inflows are weighing on the Solana price, even as on-chain activity surges.

Is Solana’s network actually growing?
Yes. Record transaction counts, rising non-vote transactions, huge stablecoin volume, and stronger daily active users all point to real network growth.

What is the biggest near-term catalyst?
The Alpenglow upgrade, which could cut finality to near-instant levels and improve Solana’s user experience across payments and DeFi.

Why do ETF flows matter so much?
ETF inflows are one of the clearest signs of institutional demand. When they fade, price tends to drift, no matter how strong the chain looks on paper.

Can Solana break the $100 wall?
Yes, but it likely needs both stronger capital inflows and a market that is willing to reward its on-chain growth instead of shrugging at it.

Is Solana mispriced?
Possibly. The market may be underestimating Solana’s real usage, but it may also be correctly discounting supply pressure and weak flows in the short term.

Solana’s current setup is a useful reminder that blockchains do not get paid in applause. They get paid in liquidity, confidence, and sustained demand. Right now, the chain is cooking — the token is just waiting for the market to stop acting like a nervous wreck.