Bitcoin Bull Run 2025: Why This NUPL Chart Says We’re Not There Yet

Bitcoin holders are itching for the next big rally, but a chart shared by Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, on February 16, 2025, throws cold water on the hype. Using the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, Wedson’s analysis suggests the market hasn’t hit the kind of despair that historically sparks major bull runs. We’re diving deep into this data, unpacking what it means for Bitcoin’s price trends in 2025, and why patience might be your best bet right now.

• Core Metric: NUPL at 0.36 shows long-term holders are still in profit.
• Historical Clue: Bull runs often follow NUPL dropping below zero, signaling widespread losses.
• Current Reality: More downside or consolidation likely before a significant rally.

What is NUPL and Why Does It Matter for Bitcoin?

For those new to the crypto space, let’s break down the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric. Imagine you bought a house for $200,000, and it’s now worth $250,000 on paper—but you haven’t sold it yet. That $50,000 gain is an “unrealized profit.” NUPL applies this concept to Bitcoin, tracking the average paper gains or losses of long-term holders—those diamond-handed investors who rarely sell, often holding for years through brutal price swings. These are typically wallets with minimal sell-side activity, representing the most convicted players in the game.

A positive NUPL value means their Bitcoin is worth more than what they paid for it; a negative value means they’re underwater, holding at a loss. Right now, the NUPL sits at 0.36, indicating these steadfast HODLers are still in the green. So why does this matter? Because this Bitcoin holder sentiment indicator has a track record of signaling where we are in the market cycle. Historically, when NUPL dips into negative territory, it marks the late stages of a bear market—those dark, soul-crushing moments of maximum depression where even the toughest investors start doubting. That’s often the reset button for a new bull cycle.

Unlike short-term price charts or Twitter hot takes, NUPL focuses on the behavior of the most resilient market participants. It strips away the noise of day traders and hype cycles, offering a clearer lens on deep market dynamics. For Bitcoin market cycle analysis, it’s a critical tool, especially when paired with other factors like macroeconomic trends or halving events. If you’re trying to predict Bitcoin bull runs, understanding this metric is a must.

Historical Patterns: Lessons from Past Bitcoin Cycles

Bitcoin’s history is a wild ride of booms and busts, and NUPL has been a reliable guidepost through it all. Let’s rewind to the bear market of 2014-2015. After the Mt. Gox hack and a brutal price collapse, Bitcoin cratered to around $200, down over 80% from its peak. During that period, NUPL went deeply negative, reflecting losses even for those who’d been holding since the early days. Sentiment was apocalyptic—forums were full of despair, and many wrote Bitcoin off as dead. Yet, that capitulation—where investors give up and sell at a loss out of sheer hopelessness—marked the bottom. By late 2015, the bulls started charging, kicking off a rally that peaked at nearly $20,000 by 2017.

Fast forward to 2018-2019, and the story repeats. Post-2017 euphoria, Bitcoin plummeted to $3,200, and NUPL again dropped below zero. Long-term holders were bleeding, with even the most stubborn questioning their choices. That pain was the cleanse the market needed—overhyped investments driven by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out, for the uninitiated, meaning jumping in because everyone else is) were washed out, coins transferred to stronger hands, and the stage was set. By 2020, Bitcoin roared back, eventually hitting $69,000 in 2021. Data from platforms like Glassnode shows NUPL consistently hitting red zones before these parabolic moves, often lingering below zero for months during peak despair.

These patterns aren’t random. Negative NUPL readings signal seller exhaustion, the point where there’s no one left to panic-sell. It’s the kind of market reset that clears out leverage and speculative froth, paving the way for genuine demand to rebuild. Every major bull run in Bitcoin’s history has followed this script, making NUPL a beacon for those dissecting crypto bear markets and hunting for cycle bottoms.

Current State: Are We Close to Capitulation?

So where are we in early 2025? With NUPL at 0.36, long-term holders haven’t felt the burn yet. They’re still sitting pretty, their Bitcoin valued above what they paid. Historically, this green zone on Wedson’s chart—shared via Tradingview.com—aligns with either late bull market phases or prolonged consolidation, not the kind of gut-wrenching stress that precedes a rally. In plain English, the market hasn’t hit rock bottom, and without that final shakeout, a Bitcoin bull run in 2025 might be further off than the hopium crowd thinks.

Let’s be real: a positive NUPL suggests we haven’t seen enough selling pressure to purge the weak hands. We could be in for more downside—prices potentially dipping further to force losses on even the toughest HODLers—or a frustrating sideways grind where nothing much happens. Beyond holder sentiment, external forces are at play. Rising interest rates or inflation fears could weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin, while institutional flows through ETFs might offer temporary support. The halving event, which slashes miner rewards and historically tightens supply, is another wildcard, though its impact often takes months to materialize. For now, NUPL tells us the deep cycle stress hasn’t arrived, and without it, any breakout feels premature.

Counterpoints: Could This Time Be Different?

Let’s play devil’s advocate. Bitcoin isn’t the obscure geek toy it was a decade ago; it’s a maturing asset with serious institutional muscle behind it. Could the old patterns of deep capitulation no longer apply? Think about the heavyweights—hedge funds, corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy, and Bitcoin ETFs that have soaked up billions in inflows over the past few years. These players could step in to buy dips long before NUPL turns negative, potentially stabilizing prices and shortening or softening bear phases. Mainstream awareness has also grown; with more retail investors viewing Bitcoin as a long-term inflation hedge, mass panic-selling might be less severe.

But here’s the kicker: don’t bet on human nature changing overnight. Crypto remains a speculative beast, driven by the same greed and fear that fueled past cycles. Institutional involvement cuts both ways—big players can just as easily dump holdings during a macro downturn, amplifying volatility. Look at 2022’s crash, where even with ETF hype, Bitcoin wasn’t spared a 70% drop. Regulatory risks loom large too; a sudden crackdown could spook markets faster than any whale buy. While the landscape has evolved, the psychological triggers of capitulation—panic, despair, and forced sales—still hold sway. History doesn’t repeat exactly, but it often rhymes, and expecting a smooth transition to bull territory might be wishful thinking.

Bitcoin’s Role and Beyond: Maximalism Meets Innovation

For Bitcoin maximalists, metrics like NUPL reinforce why BTC is king. It’s not just about price—it’s a long-term bet on decentralization, a middle finger to broken fiat systems, and a store of value with unassailable security and scarcity. Enduring the grind, even as NUPL hints at more pain, is part of the ethos. Altcoins and other blockchains like Ethereum have their place, no doubt. Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem powers decentralized apps and smart contracts, while privacy coins like Monero fill niches Bitcoin doesn’t touch. Layer-2 solutions are tackling scalability issues BTC sidesteps. But none match Bitcoin’s bedrock status in the fight for financial sovereignty.

That said, let’s not drink the Kool-Aid blindly. Bitcoin can’t—and shouldn’t—do everything. Its focus on being digital gold leaves room for innovation elsewhere, and dismissing altcoins outright ignores the broader revolution. Still, when the dust settles on market cycles, Bitcoin’s resilience shines. HODLing through the pain isn’t just about profits; it’s about sticking it to a rigged system that’s failed too many for too long.

What This Means for Investors

So, what’s the move while NUPL stays positive? Should you stack sats now, wait for a deeper dip, or diversify into altcoins? There’s no crystal ball, but here’s a framework. If you believe in Bitcoin’s long game, accumulating during consolidation or mild dips builds your position without chasing hype. Waiting for NUPL to turn negative could mean missing early gains if institutions indeed change the cycle dynamic. Diversifying carries risks—many altcoins are speculative gambles prone to rug pulls—but offers exposure to other corners of the space.

Above all, patience and skepticism are your allies. Ignore the shills on social media peddling snake oil with $200K Bitcoin predictions next month. They’re either ignorant or scamming—steer clear. NUPL is one tool, not gospel. Pair it with macro trends, on-chain data like miner activity, and a gut check on your risk tolerance. Crypto’s volatility is a test of conviction; don’t bet the farm on any single signal, especially in a market as unpredictable as this.

Key Takeaways and Questions to Ponder

• What does the Long-Term Holder NUPL metric reveal about Bitcoin’s market cycles?
  It tracks unrealized profits or losses of long-term holders, showing their financial sentiment. Historically, negative NUPL values signal bear market bottoms, often preceding major bull runs by indicating capitulation and a market reset.
• Does the current NUPL reading of 0.36 suggest a bull run is near?
  No, it indicates long-term holders are still in profit, far from the deep despair typically needed before a rally. More downside or sideways movement may be required to hit that cycle low.
• Could institutional involvement alter Bitcoin’s traditional cycle patterns?
  Possibly, as big players buying dips could stabilize prices and prevent deep capitulation. However, speculative psychology and sudden sell-offs by institutions mean dramatic cycles might still dominate.
• How should investors approach Bitcoin with NUPL still positive?
  Exercise patience—consider gradual accumulation if you’re bullish long-term, but don’t chase hype. Use NUPL alongside other indicators and stay skeptical of overblown predictions or scams promising quick riches.

Zooming out, Wedson’s chart from Alphractal is a stark reminder that Bitcoin’s road to glory is a bumpy one. For newcomers, it’s a crash course in looking past the noise to understand market undercurrents. For the OGs, it’s a nod to the brutal truth that the sweetest gains often follow the bitterest losses. Whether you’re stacking sats or just spectating, the signal is clear: the next bull run might be on the horizon, but the market hasn’t punched the reset button yet. Keep an eye on metrics like NUPL, but brace for the ride—and maybe chuckle at the latest meme coin flop while you’re at it. After all, in crypto’s wild west, the only guarantee is the chaos.