Citigroup Predicts Stablecoin Market to Hit $1.6T by 2030, Eyes Global Impact

Citigroup Projects Stablecoin Market to Surge to $1.6 Trillion by 2030

Citigroup’s Citi Institute foresees a dramatic expansion of the stablecoin market, projecting a total supply of up to $1.6 trillion by 2030 in a base case scenario, potentially reaching $3.7 trillion under more favorable conditions. While this growth heralds new possibilities for global finance, it also raises concerns about stability and regulation.

• Stablecoin market growth projected to $1.6T by 2030.
• Potential ‘ChatGPT moment’ for stablecoins by 2025.
• Stablecoins to remain largely dollar-based.
• Over 1,900 de-pegging events in 2025 pose risks.
• Stablecoins could disrupt banking and serve as global liquidity source.
• Blockchain technology eyed for broader applications.

Citigroup’s bold prediction, as stated in the report, highlights the potential for stablecoins to revolutionize the financial landscape:

“Citi Institute predicts the total supply of stablecoins will increase as high as $1.6T by 2030 in the base case scenario.”

This forecast suggests that stablecoins may reach a tipping point of mainstream adoption, akin to a ‘ChatGPT moment,’ by the end of 2025. This surge could be driven by clearer regulations and broader financial sector adoption, transforming the way we think about money.

However, the path to this future isn’t without its potholes. The report notes a significant number of de-pegging events—occasions where stablecoins lose their fixed value—amounting to 1,900 in 2025 alone. This volatility is a stark reminder of the risks involved.

“Citi Research counted 1,900 events when stablecoins deviated from their $1 value in 2025,”

illustrating the potential instability these digital assets can face. The 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis, which shook the stablecoin USDC, is a clear example of how interconnected and vulnerable these assets can be to traditional financial systems.

Despite these risks, stablecoins hold immense promise. With up to 90% expected to be tethered to the US dollar, they could bolster demand for US Treasuries. Tether’s status as one of the top seven holders of US Treasuries in 2024 underscores the financial clout stablecoins can wield. Moreover, stablecoins could act as a global liquidity source, serving as a dollar standard in developing markets and potentially disrupting traditional banking with their round-the-clock accessibility and convenience.

The implications of stablecoins extend beyond finance. The report envisions blockchain technology being leveraged for public spending, transparent reporting, smart contracts for public tenders, and digital asset issuance. This could pave the way for more efficient and transparent governance, though it also opens the door to new challenges and risks of misuse.

Yet, the journey to widespread adoption is fraught with regulatory hurdles. While stablecoins might disrupt traditional banking, they also offer opportunities for innovation and efficiency in financial transactions. Traditional banks are already adapting, with institutions like BNY Mellon and Standard Chartered providing services to stablecoin issuers, showing how the financial sector is evolving.

As we look to the future, it’s essential to balance the potential of stablecoins with a critical eye on their risks. The promise of a more decentralized, efficient financial system is exciting, but we must navigate the complexities of regulation and stability to ensure that this revolution benefits everyone.

Key Questions and Takeaways

What growth is projected for stablecoins by 2030?

The projected growth for stablecoins by 2030 ranges from $1.6 trillion in a base case scenario to up to $3.7 trillion in a bullish scenario.

When might stablecoins see a significant adoption boost?

Stablecoins could see a significant adoption boost by the end of 2025, potentially experiencing a ‘ChatGPT moment’ due to improved regulations and broader financial sector adoption.

What currency will most stablecoins be based on?

Most stablecoins, up to 90%, are expected to be based on the US dollar, which could increase demand for US Treasuries.

What risks do stablecoins pose?

Stablecoins pose risks such as over 1,900 de-pegging events recorded in 2025 and potential contagion risks to the financial system, as demonstrated by the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis affecting USDC.

How can stablecoins impact the global financial system?

Stablecoins can impact the global financial system by serving as a global liquidity source, acting as a dollar standard for developing markets, and potentially disrupting traditional banking by offering 24/7 access and convenience.

What additional blockchain applications are mentioned?

Additional blockchain applications mentioned include public spending, transparent reporting, smart contracts for public tenders, automated tax collection, and the issuance of digital bonds and other assets with fractional ownership.