Michael Saylor on Bitcoin’s Short-Term Correlation with Stocks

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, recently addressed the contentious issue of Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks, offering insights into why the cryptocurrency behaves like a risk asset in the short term. This comes amid heightened scrutiny from figures like Dave Portnoy and institutions like JPMorgan, who question Bitcoin’s touted status as an uncorrelated asset.

• Bitcoin trades like a risk asset in the short term.
• Traders sell what they can, not what they want, during panic.
• Correlation with stocks is not a long-term phenomenon.

Saylor’s perspective is clear: “Bitcoin trades like a risk asset short term because it’s the most liquid, salable, 24/7 asset on Earth. In times of panic, traders sell what they can, not what they want to.” This statement highlights why Bitcoin, despite its ‘digital gold’ narrative, often moves in tandem with the stock market during volatile periods. It’s not about wanting to sell Bitcoin, but rather about the necessity to liquidate assets quickly when fear grips the market.

The discussion was reignited by a viral social media post from Dave Portnoy, founder of Barstool Sports, which garnered over four million views. Portnoy questioned why Bitcoin, supposedly an uncorrelated currency, was trading like U.S. stocks. This sparked a flurry of debates within the crypto community, prompting many to reassess Bitcoin’s role in their portfolios.

On the other hand, major financial institutions like JPMorgan have been vocal about their skepticism. They argue that Bitcoin’s ‘digital gold’ narrative is crumbling, viewing it more as a high beta risk proxy (an asset that moves more dramatically than the market, indicating higher risk) than a safe haven. JPMorgan’s analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have pointed out gold’s strength in the debasement trade (when the value of currency decreases due to inflation or other factors), noting Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold in 2025.

Yet, Bitcoin advocates like Bob Burnett, founder of Barefoot Mining, offer a different view. Burnett argues that while Bitcoin may initially track the market, it diverges over longer periods. He explains, “So, Bitcoin has a tendency to track the market initially as the market changes direction. But, once you zoom out to longer windows, you will see that it diverges.” This aligns with Saylor’s belief that Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks is not a long-term phenomenon.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds a significant stake in Bitcoin, with approximately 528,185 Bitcoin (BTC) valued at around $35.63 billion. This investment underscores Saylor’s confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential despite short-term market volatility.

The broader market context, including the reaction to President Trump’s tariffs announcement on April 2, 2025, which saw significant drops in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, as well as Bitcoin and Strategy’s stock, further illustrates the interconnectedness of various assets during times of economic uncertainty.

Gold’s performance in 2025, rising above $3,100 per ounce, reflects increased investor preference for traditional safe-haven assets amid the debasement trade. This shift is evident in the outflows from Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and inflows into gold ETFs over the past two months, highlighting a changing investor sentiment.

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin’s price around $83,700 in early April 2025 remains above its estimated production cost of $62,000, suggesting a level of support for the cryptocurrency. Moreover, JPMorgan’s estimate of Bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted value at around $71,000, based on a comparison to privately held gold, provides a quantitative measure of its perceived value relative to its risk.

The debate around Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks and its role as ‘digital gold’ continues to evolve. While short-term market behaviors may raise questions, the long-term narrative of Bitcoin as a unique asset class remains a point of contention and interest for investors and enthusiasts alike.

Key Takeaways and Questions

• What did Michael Saylor say about Bitcoin’s trading behavior?

  Michael Saylor explained that Bitcoin trades like a risk asset in the short term due to its high liquidity and salability. He noted that in times of panic, traders sell what they can, not what they want to.

• Is Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks a long-term phenomenon according to Saylor?

  No, Saylor believes that Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks is not a long-term phenomenon.

• What prompted the recent discussions about Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks?

  A viral social media post by Dave Portnoy questioning why Bitcoin trades like U.S. stocks despite being supposed to be an uncorrelated currency.

• What is JPMorgan’s view on Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative?

  JPMorgan opined that Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative is crumbling because the cryptocurrency has been persistently trading in lockstep with U.S. equities.

• How does Bob Burnett describe Bitcoin’s relationship with the stock market?

  Bob Burnett stated that Bitcoin has a tendency to track the market initially as the market changes direction, but over longer periods, it diverges from the stock market.