Peter Schiff Proclaims Bitcoin’s Good News Era Ends in 2026

Peter Schiff, the ever-vocal Bitcoin critic and gold advocate, has dropped a bombshell prediction for 2026, declaring that the cryptocurrency’s days of riding positive hype are officially over. In his recent “Year-End Special” forecast, Schiff argues that Bitcoin’s lackluster performance throughout 2025—despite a pro-crypto environment with talk of a “Bitcoin president” and corporate adoption—signals a market where all the good news is already baked into the price, leaving only room for a fall.

• Schiff’s Core Claim: Bitcoin’s failure to rally in 2025 amidst optimism means the good news is priced in, pointing to a 2026 decline.
• 2025 Struggles: Bitcoin and related ETFs tanked while stocks and precious metals soared to new heights.
• Macro Challenges: Economic slowdown, inflation, and Fed policy shifts could favor gold over crypto, per Schiff’s 2026 outlook.

Schiff’s Case: Bitcoin’s Missed Opportunity in 2025

Schiff, a long-standing skeptic who’s compared Bitcoin to historical bubbles like the Dutch Tulip Mania, isn’t mincing words. He’s been banging the drum against BTC for over a decade, often while touting gold as the ultimate store of value. His latest critique, detailed in a recent analysis by Peter Schiff on Bitcoin’s future, hinges on Bitcoin’s underwhelming run in 2025, a year that, by all accounts, should’ve been a victory lap for the digital asset. With narratives swirling about political support—possibly a U.S. administration pushing for a strategic Bitcoin reserve—and corporations stacking sats, the stars seemed aligned for a massive surge. Yet, Bitcoin didn’t just stagnate; it declined in value. Meanwhile, traditional markets laughed all the way to the bank: the Dow rose 13%, the S&P 500 gained 16.4%, the Nasdaq jumped 20.4%, and precious metals went on a tear with gold up 64% and silver more than doubling. Bitcoin? A sad trombone in a symphony of gains.

Schiff drives the point home with hard data, pointing to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as proof of fading interest. For those new to the game, ETFs are investment products traded on stock exchanges that track Bitcoin’s price, allowing mainstream investors to gain exposure without directly owning the crypto. These funds ended 2025 down 7.5% for the year, a stark contrast to gains elsewhere. Even more telling, they’ve shifted from being major buyers to consistent sellers. As Schiff bluntly stated,

“The ETFs are selling now. They’ve gone from big Bitcoin buyers to consistent Bitcoin sellers.”

That flip in behavior suggests institutional money—once a key driver of Bitcoin’s momentum—is drying up, a red flag for a market that’s leaned heavily on such inflows.

Strategy’s Collapse: A Poster Child for Waning Demand

Schiff also zeroes in on Strategy, a leveraged Bitcoin proxy that he dubs a “poster boy” for the risks of BTC exposure. For clarity, a leveraged proxy is an investment vehicle designed to amplify Bitcoin’s price movements—think of it as a high-stakes bet where gains and losses are magnified. Strategy closed 2025 at a 52-week low, down a punishing 47.5% for the year and a staggering 67% below its all-time high. Schiff notes that Strategy’s five-year average cost basis for Bitcoin—essentially the average price at which it acquired its holdings—sits around $75,000. With BTC trading at $89,517 as of mid-December 2025, that’s only a 16% gain, or a measly 3% annualized return. For a leveraged play, that’s not just underwhelming—it’s borderline disastrous. Ouch. Is this the leveraged Bitcoin dream turning into a full-blown nightmare?

Schiff’s takeaway is brutal but logical: if Bitcoin can’t climb when the world is screaming “buy,” the endgame is likely a crash.

“If something doesn’t go up when everybody thinks it’s going to go up, that’s a pretty good indication that it’s going to go down. If a market can’t go up on good news, that means all that good news is already priced into the market […] and that means all that it can do is go down,”

he warned. He even called out the mainstream hype machine, noting,

“Everybody on CNBC was pounding the table on when the year began was Bitcoin.”

When the loudest voices are bullish and the price still flops, you’ve got a serious problem on your hands.

Macro Storm on the Horizon: Why 2026 Looks Grim

Peering into 2026, Schiff ties his bearish stance to a darkening macroeconomic picture. He predicts weaker economic growth, persistent inflation, and a Federal Reserve resorting to unofficial quantitative easing—basically, printing money by gobbling up assets to juice the economy, often paired with interest rate cuts. Throw in a weakening dollar and price hikes driven by tariffs, and you’ve got a cocktail of pain for risk assets like Bitcoin. For context, risk assets are investments that thrive in bullish, growth-heavy environments but get hammered when uncertainty reigns. Schiff, ever the gold bug, argues that these conditions will herd investors toward safe havens like precious metals, leaving cryptocurrencies to eat dust. He avoids pinning an exact price for BTC in 2026 but floats a minimum downside target of $50,000—a gut punch from its current $89,517 level. His advice to holders is as subtle as a sledgehammer:

“Get rid of your Bitcoin above $87,000.”

Let’s unpack why these macro conditions could sting Bitcoin more than gold. During economic turbulence, investors often ditch volatile assets for “tried-and-true” stores of value like gold, which has tangible weight and centuries of trust behind it. Bitcoin, despite its fixed supply mimicking gold’s scarcity, still carries the stigma of being a speculative tech play—more gamble than refuge. If Schiff’s forecast of inflation and Fed easing pans out, risk-off sentiment could indeed send BTC spiraling while gold glitters. But is gold really the unshakable fortress Schiff claims? It’s had its own wobbles during past crises, often lagging when liquidity dries up. Food for thought.

Devil’s Advocate: Why Bitcoin Might Still Defy the Odds

Now, let’s flip the script. Schiff’s been singing Bitcoin’s funeral dirge since it was a scrappy underdog trading in the triple digits, yet here we are, with BTC stubbornly clinging to near $90,000. His track record on crypto collapse predictions isn’t exactly a crystal ball—remember his 2017 call for a crash to $1,000, right before Bitcoin soared to $20,000? The pro-Bitcoin camp would argue that 2025’s slump is just a hiccup, a consolidation phase before the next trigger—like the upcoming halving, which historically slashes Bitcoin’s new supply and often sparks rallies 12 to 18 months later. Global adoption is another wildcard; regions with crumbling fiat currencies, from Latin America to parts of Africa, are increasingly turning to BTC as a hedge, stats on wallet growth and Lightning Network transactions show slow but steady climbs.

Then there’s the resilience factor. Bitcoin has weathered worse storms—think the 2018 bear market, where it bled 80% before roaring back. Retail and corporate stacking, like MicroStrategy’s relentless accumulation, could still prop up a price floor. Regulatory tailwinds, even if delayed, might materialize if political promises of a “Bitcoin-friendly” administration bear fruit. And let’s not ignore Schiff’s gold obsession, which might tint his lens a bit too shiny—after all, precious metals aren’t immune to economic whiplash. Could Bitcoin, as a decentralized middle finger to centralized finance, still surprise us? Its core mission of financial sovereignty doesn’t hinge on short-term price pumps.

Still, dismissing Schiff outright would be naive. ETF outflows, Strategy’s bloodbath, and Bitcoin’s inability to seize 2025’s momentum aren’t mere noise—they hint at a market potentially tapped out of fresh fuel. For every maxi preaching “HODL to the moon,” there’s a quiet doubt: what if the good news really has run dry? If macro conditions tank risk assets while gold shines, where does that leave digital money in a world craving something tangible to clutch?

Beyond Bitcoin: Implications for the Crypto Ecosystem

Schiff’s forecast isn’t just a swipe at Bitcoin—it’s a challenge to the broader crypto narrative of unstoppable disruption. If his logic of “priced-in hype” holds, does it spell doom for altcoins and other blockchain projects too? Ethereum, with its sprawling decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, might weather a Bitcoin downturn by focusing on utility—think staking, smart contracts, and layer-2 scaling solutions. Emerging chains like Solana or Polkadot could also carve niches in speed or interoperability, areas Bitcoin doesn’t aim to dominate. Heck, a Bitcoin crash might even accelerate innovation elsewhere, as developers and investors pivot to solve real-world problems over pure speculation. If you’re an effective accelerationist like some of us, a shakeout could be the purge this space needs to build stronger.

That said, Bitcoin remains the flagship. A steep drop to $50,000 or below could ripple across the market, spooking retail investors and stalling momentum for smaller tokens or NFT projects that thrive on crypto’s overall hype. It’s a double-edged sword: while decentralization’s ethos doesn’t die with price, public perception often does. For newcomers, this is a stark reminder that crypto isn’t a guaranteed rocket ride—volatility and external risks are baked into the game. For veterans, it’s a test of conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term promise over fleeting market cycles.

Key Questions and Takeaways on Bitcoin’s 2026 Outlook

• Why is Peter Schiff so bearish on Bitcoin for 2026?
  Schiff believes Bitcoin’s failure to rally in 2025, despite widespread optimism, shows all positive catalysts are already priced in, leaving only downside risk.
• How did Bitcoin fare against gold and stocks in 2025?
  Bitcoin and its ETFs lost ground, while gold surged 64%, silver doubled, and stock indices like the Nasdaq climbed 20.4%, exposing BTC’s relative weakness.
• What do Bitcoin ETF outflows reveal about market sentiment?
  Outflows signal fading institutional interest, as funds that once drove Bitcoin’s rise are now selling, a worrying trend for demand according to Schiff.
• Could 2026’s macroeconomic conditions really hurt Bitcoin?
  Yes, Schiff expects slower growth, inflation, and Fed easing to push investors toward safe havens like gold, sidelining riskier assets like Bitcoin.
• What are Bitcoin ETFs, and why do they matter?
  ETFs are exchange-traded funds tracking Bitcoin’s price, offering mainstream investors exposure without owning BTC; their performance reflects broader market confidence.
• Is there hope for Bitcoin to defy Schiff’s grim forecast?
  Definitely—Bitcoin has historically rebounded after slumps, with halvings, global adoption, and its decentralized mission as potential game-changers.
• What might a Bitcoin downturn mean for other cryptocurrencies?
  While a BTC crash could rattle the broader market, it might also spur innovation in altcoins like Ethereum or Solana, focusing on utility over speculation.

Schiff’s latest jab at Bitcoin is more than just another bearish rant—it’s a gauntlet thrown at the heart of the crypto movement. Whether he’s the prophet of doom or just a gold-obsessed grump remains to be seen, but his data points force us to confront uncomfortable truths about hype, demand, and macro risks. For those of us rooting for decentralization, privacy, and disruption of the financial status quo, the real question isn’t just about price. It’s whether Bitcoin’s soul—its unshackled freedom from central banks—can outshine any bear market. If Schiff’s right about 2026, could a crash actually fast-track the push for decentralized alternatives to fiat? Let’s build through the rubble, because the revolution doesn’t wait for permission.