Retail Is Out: Who’s Fueling Bitcoin’s Next Mania Phase?

In a surprising shift, Bitcoin’s current market cycle is being driven not by the usual frenzy of retail investors, but by a new wave of players: small companies and funds. This shift could set the stage for the next phase of crypto mania, but it comes with its own set of challenges and opportunities.

• Reduced retail investor activity
• Small companies and funds adopting Bitcoin
• Long-term holders showing strong conviction

The Decline of Retail Investors

Bitcoin’s usual retail investor frenzy seems to be missing in action. According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, “The next wave of crypto mania may not be driven by retail investors but by small or emerging companies and funds attempting to replicate Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy.” On-chain data supports this shift, with Bitcoin steadily leaving trading platforms and the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (a metric showing whether more Bitcoin is being bought or sold on exchanges) falling below 1.0, indicating aggressive selling by retail investors. This trend suggests that retail investors are reducing their exposure, possibly due to market fatigue or a shift in focus to other investment opportunities.

Corporate Adoption of Bitcoin

Companies like Japan’s Metaplanet, holding 7,800 BTC, Hong Kong’s Boyaa Interactive with 2,410 BTC, and US-based Semler Scientific, now boasting 4,264 BTC, are adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, mirroring the approach pioneered by Saylor’s MicroStrategy. These firms are betting big on Bitcoin’s future, but they face a significant challenge: maintaining conviction during potential extreme volatility, such as a potential 90% drop in their stock or fund value. It’s like watching a rebellious teenager grow up to be a Wall Street executive—Bitcoin’s journey from retail darling to corporate treasure chest is full of surprises.

Semler Scientific’s recent acquisition of 455 BTC, bringing its total to 4,264 BTC, is part of a broader strategy to use Bitcoin as a core treasury asset. This move has led to increased stock volatility and mixed investor reactions, with the company facing financial strain and a net loss in Q1 2025. Despite these challenges, Semler’s commitment to Bitcoin accumulation reflects a growing trend among public firms, with over 40 launching crypto treasury programs in 2025.

The Role of Long-Term Holders

Despite the lack of retail enthusiasm, long-term holders are demonstrating strong conviction. Axel Adler Jr., a CryptoQuant analyst, notes that this cohort has accumulated 300,000 BTC over the past 20 days—an encouraging sign of confidence and a potentially bullish indicator for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. This accumulation aligns with a broader trend of increased institutional interest in Bitcoin, as over 40 public firms launched crypto treasury programs in 2025. Bitcoin’s steadfast believers are showing they’re in it for the long haul.

Long-term holders (LTHs) are defined as wallets that have held Bitcoin for over 155 days. Their accumulation and reduced spending are historically bullish signals, often preceding major market rallies. The recent accumulation of 300,000 BTC by LTHs aligns with this trend, suggesting a strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value despite short-term market fluctuations.

Market Dynamics and Miners’ Activity

Recent market dynamics have also seen miners increase their selling activity on exchanges, with inflows doubling from an average of 25 BTC to 508 BTC per day. This indicates high network activity, though not yet at historical peaks. Additionally, CryptoQuant’s Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXO) metric is nearing the 99% threshold, suggesting 99% of all BTC holdings are in profit. This is a sign of market euphoria but also potential overheating if sustained. The UTXO metric reaching 99% is like the crypto market’s version of a fever—hot, but possibly too hot to handle.

Recent market volatility and liquidation events have affected short-term holders, leading to forced selling and a market reset. Long-term holders have capitalized on these events, increasing their holdings during the dip. This behavior highlights the resilience and belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value among LTHs, even as short-term traders face challenges.

Balancing Optimism and Realism

While the potential for Bitcoin’s growth is immense, it’s crucial to consider the risks. Corporate and long-term holder adoption could reshape market dynamics, but their ability to weather volatility remains uncertain. Bitcoin maximalists may roll their eyes at altcoins, but let’s face it, the crypto world needs a bit of diversity to keep things interesting. Amidst this shift, the broader ecosystem of altcoins and innovative protocols continues to push the boundaries of what’s possible, filling niches that Bitcoin itself might not be suited to tackle.

Profit-taking during a bull run is healthy and necessary for maintaining market momentum. Current realized profits are within normal levels for a bull run, not yet reaching the historical danger zone of 350,000 BTC. This suggests that the market is still in a healthy state, with room for further growth without excessive selling pressure.

Key Takeaways and Questions

• Who is driving the current Bitcoin market cycle if not retail investors?

  Small or emerging companies and funds are stepping in, attempting to replicate Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

• What challenges do these new market players face?

  They may struggle to maintain conviction during extreme volatility, such as a potential 90% drop in their stock or fund value.

• Which companies have adopted Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset?

  Japan’s Metaplanet, Hong Kong’s Boyaa Interactive, and US-based Semler Scientific.

• How is the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders influencing the market?

  Long-term holders are showing strong conviction by accumulating 300,000 BTC over the past 20 days, which could be a bullish indicator for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

• What on-chain data suggests about retail investor participation?

  Negative exchange netflows and a Taker Buy/Sell Ratio below 1.0 indicate that Bitcoin is leaving trading platforms and retail investors are likely reducing their exposure.

“The next wave of crypto mania may not be driven by retail investors but by small or emerging companies and funds attempting to replicate Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy.” – Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant

“This cohort of BTC holders has accumulated 300,000 BTC over the past 20 days – an encouraging sign of confidence and a potentially bullish indicator for the crypto asset’s price trajectory.” – Axel Adler Jr., CryptoQuant analyst

Glossary of Terms:

• Taker Buy/Sell Ratio: A metric that shows whether more Bitcoin is being bought or sold on exchanges.
• Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXO): A measure of the percentage of Bitcoin holdings that are currently in profit.
• Exchange Netflows: The amount of Bitcoin moving in and out of trading platforms.