XRP ETF on BlackRock’s Horizon? Canary CEO Predicts Late 2026 Filing

Could BlackRock, the heavyweight of traditional finance, be poised to make a bold move into the XRP ETF arena? Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, is placing his chips on a filing by late 2026 or early 2027, a development that could catapult XRP into the mainstream spotlight—if the market delivers the right signals.

• Bold Forecast: BlackRock could file for a spot XRP ETF by late 2026 or early 2027, per Canary Capital’s CEO.
• Key Threshold: XRP ETF assets need to reach $3 billion to attract BlackRock’s interest.
• Market Update: Six SEC-approved XRP ETFs currently manage over $1 billion, despite recent outflows.

The XRP ETF landscape in the U.S. is already gaining traction, with six funds fully endorsed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and holding a combined $1 billion in assets. This is no minor milestone for XRP, a cryptocurrency that’s been bogged down by years of regulatory scrutiny over its classification as a potential security. Yet, the path hasn’t been without turbulence—assets hit a high of $1.6 billion in January 2026 before dropping by $500 million due to outflows, a stark illustration of the volatility that still haunts crypto markets. As of now, XRP trades at $1.34, down 8% over the past week, serving as a gritty reminder that digital assets remain a high-stakes gamble.

So, why is BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with a staggering $10 trillion under management, still sitting on the sidelines? According to McClurg, it boils down to cold, hard metrics. He projects that XRP ETF assets must balloon to $3 billion to demonstrate the kind of “robust and durable demand” that would compel BlackRock to act, as noted in a recent prediction by Canary Capital’s CEO. That’s a triple jump from the current $1 billion, a daunting but not impossible feat given the rising interest from traditional investors seeking crypto exposure without the chaos of managing private keys or wallets. For those just stepping into this space, an ETF (exchange-traded fund) is a financial instrument traded on stock exchanges that mirrors the price of an underlying asset—here, XRP—offering a streamlined way to invest without directly owning the cryptocurrency.

But why zero in on $3 billion? McClurg doesn’t lay out the exact math, but this figure likely aligns with BlackRock’s internal standards for market readiness. They’re not about to wade into uncharted waters too soon and risk a reputational hit if the market tanks. Picture this threshold as the gatekeeper at an elite club—only the heaviest hitters get through. And it’s not just about the numbers. McClurg highlights that competitive pressure could accelerate BlackRock’s timeline. If a rival powerhouse like Fidelity or Vanguard files for an XRP ETF first, BlackRock might be forced to act to avoid losing ground and the prestige of leading the charge in another crypto breakthrough.

Ripple’s Legal Quagmire: A Stumbling Block for BlackRock?

Let’s address the massive hurdle looming over XRP—Ripple, the company steering it, remains entangled in a long-running legal feud with the SEC. For years, the agency has claimed that XRP sales were unregistered securities offerings, casting a persistent shadow over the asset’s credibility. Even though the approval of six XRP ETFs suggests a regulatory softening, any unresolved litigation or adverse rulings could deter a risk-averse giant like BlackRock. Why stake a claim on an asset with baggage when Bitcoin and Ethereum, despite their own challenges, offer relatively clearer regulatory paths? As a staunch advocate for decentralization, I’m all for challenging overzealous regulation, but let’s not sugarcoat it—legal uncertainty could shove that 2026 timeline into distant, murky waters.

Institutional Interest: The Catalyst for XRP ETFs

Beyond asset figures and legal snarls, there’s another critical factor—institutional demand. Picture massive entities like state pension funds or sovereign wealth funds, which oversee vast sums for public employees or national reserves, starting to allocate to XRP ETFs. These are notoriously cautious players, rarely venturing into speculative assets without evidence of stability and growth. Should they commit even a sliver of their trillions to XRP, BlackRock’s decision to stay out could become riskier than jumping in. Such a shift wouldn’t just inflate asset totals; it would signal to Wall Street that XRP isn’t mere gambling fodder—it’s a legitimate contender. That kind of endorsement might be the ignition McClurg’s prediction desperately needs.

BlackRock and Ripple: A Quiet Partnership

Here’s a lesser-known detail that raises eyebrows—BlackRock isn’t entirely disconnected from Ripple. Their tokenized treasury fund, known as BUIDL, already incorporates Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin as collateral. For newcomers, a stablecoin is a cryptocurrency designed to maintain a steady value by being pegged to a stable asset like the U.S. dollar, avoiding the wild swings of coins like XRP or Bitcoin. RLUSD is Ripple’s entry in this category, aiming for consistency. While this collaboration is modest, it indicates BlackRock has a foothold in the Ripple ecosystem, perhaps testing the reliability of their tech with a lower-risk product. Could this be a precursor to a bolder XRP ETF venture? It’s a quiet sign that traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi) are inching toward each other, even if the pace feels like watching paint dry on a blockchain.

XRP’s Unique Role: A Niche Beyond Bitcoin

As someone who often waves the Bitcoin maximalist flag, I see BTC as the unrivaled king of decentralized money—unstoppable, censorship-resistant, and a giant middle finger to centralized power. But I can’t ignore that XRP serves a purpose Bitcoin doesn’t directly address. Built for rapid, low-cost cross-border payments, XRP underpins Ripple’s technology to settle transactions in mere seconds, a stark contrast to Bitcoin’s occasionally sluggish and pricey transfers during network congestion. This practicality makes XRP attractive to banks and payment processors, potentially positioning it as a unique opportunity in BlackRock’s eyes compared to their Bitcoin ETF holdings. While I’d love Bitcoin to dominate every financial frontier, altcoins like XRP prove the crypto ecosystem’s diversity is a strength, filling gaps BTC might not—and perhaps shouldn’t—cover.

The Other Side: Why This Might Be a Pipe Dream

Let’s slam the brakes on the excitement for a moment. The idea of a BlackRock XRP ETF is thrilling for adoption, but the obstacles are glaring. That 8% price plunge in just a week doesn’t scream “reliable investment,” and crypto’s brutal corrections could easily halt ETF asset growth. If the $3 billion target remains a mirage, BlackRock might not even bother looking XRP’s way. And let’s cut the bullshit—late 2026 might be overly optimistic if Ripple’s legal woes persist or if crypto markets tumble into another vicious bear cycle. On a deeper level, as a decentralization purist, I have to ask: do we even want BlackRock’s fingerprints on XRP? Their involvement could strip away its defiant edge, morphing it into just another polished TradFi product. Are we trading crypto’s rogue spirit for Wall Street’s approval?

Learning from BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Success

To understand XRP’s potential trajectory, look at BlackRock’s history with Bitcoin. Their iShares Bitcoin Trust, rolled out in 2024, amassed over $20 billion in assets in record time, exceeding expectations and drawing droves of institutional investors into the crypto fold. It gave Bitcoin a level of credibility that no amount of online hype could replicate. An XRP ETF could follow a similar path, particularly for an asset desperate for validation after years of legal battles. But Bitcoin’s pioneering status and market dominance made it a less risky play—XRP lacks that safeguard. BlackRock may demand even stronger proof of viability before venturing into the choppier waters of altcoin ETFs, where skepticism and volatility reign supreme.

How BlackRock’s XRP ETF Could Redefine Crypto Adoption

If McClurg’s vision comes to pass, the impact could be monumental. A BlackRock-endorsed XRP ETF wouldn’t merely boost asset figures; it could unleash a wave of adoption across retail and institutional spheres. Everyday investors, hesitant to navigate the complexities of direct crypto ownership, might rush to a trusted name like BlackRock for exposure. Simultaneously, institutional giants could interpret it as a signal to pour significant capital into XRP, further cementing its legitimacy. Yet, there’s a catch—concentrating such influence in a TradFi titan could clash with crypto’s core mission of eliminating middlemen. It’s a tightrope walk, and I’m torn between championing mass adoption and protecting our decentralized ideals.

Key Takeaways and Questions for Crypto Enthusiasts

• What’s the status of XRP ETFs in the U.S. market?
  Six XRP ETFs are fully approved by the SEC, collectively managing over $1 billion in assets, though they’ve fallen from a $1.6 billion peak earlier in 2026 after $500 million in outflows.
• When might BlackRock file for an XRP ETF?
  Steven McClurg of Canary Capital predicts a filing by late 2026 or early 2027, contingent on favorable market developments.
• What factors could drive BlackRock to launch an XRP ETF?
  XRP ETF assets reaching $3 billion, competitive moves by rival firms, and heightened institutional interest from entities like pension funds are key triggers.
• How does BlackRock already tie into Ripple’s ecosystem?
  BlackRock’s BUIDL tokenized fund utilizes Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin as collateral, suggesting a foundational link that could pave the way for an ETF.
• Why is institutional demand pivotal for XRP?
  Interest from major players could validate XRP as a credible asset, pushing BlackRock to engage and potentially spurring broader crypto acceptance.
• What risks might derail BlackRock’s XRP ETF plans?
  XRP’s price swings (down 8% this week), ongoing SEC disputes with Ripple, and slow ETF asset growth could delay or derail BlackRock’s interest.
• Is BlackRock’s involvement a net positive for XRP’s identity?
  While it could elevate XRP’s status, it risks aligning it too closely with traditional finance, potentially undermining crypto’s decentralized ethos.

Where does this speculation leave us? XRP ETFs are carving out their space, but they’re still far from the tipping point needed to pull BlackRock into the game. McClurg’s outlook is intriguing, yet in the crypto realm, forecasts often hold less value than a forgotten private key. I’m fully behind accelerating adoption and disrupting the financial old guard, but let’s not delude ourselves—there’s a vast gap between possibility and reality. Watch those asset inflows, rival maneuvers, and institutional signals closely. If XRP ETFs can smash that $3 billion barrier, BlackRock might just dive in. Until then, stay sharp and keep your skepticism intact. Will BlackRock’s seal of approval propel XRP to new heights, or merely mark another step in TradFi’s creeping takeover of crypto’s untamed heart? Only time—and market forces—will reveal the truth.