Bitcoin Price Under Pressure: Are We in Wave IV or Nearing Wave V of the Bull Run?

Bitcoin (BTC) is caught in a whirlwind of uncertainty, with analysts sounding the alarm on potential further downside as the market trades sideways amid global chaos. Hovering at $92,973 after slipping from a 24-hour high of $95,467 to a low of $92,263, Bitcoin’s next move is anyone’s guess. Are we stuck in a corrective Wave IV, or is the explosive Wave V just around the corner?

• Price Snapshot: Bitcoin at $92,973, with a 2.6% weekly gain and 5.4% monthly uptick despite recent dip.
• Wave Debate: Analysts peg Wave IV completion at $71,000-$84,000; Wave V starts above $104,000.
• External Drag: Geopolitical tensions, US political mess, and macro events fuel bearish vibes.

Technical Breakdown: Where Does Bitcoin Stand?

Let’s cut straight to the charts. Bitcoin’s recent price action has sparked heated debate among technical analysts using the Elliott Wave Theory, a framework that maps market cycles through five upward “impulsive” waves in a bull run, followed by three downward “corrective” waves. Think of it as a roller coaster—five big climbs of bullish hype, with a few stomach-churning dips to cool things off. Right now, John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, believes we’re in Wave IV, a corrective phase where prices often pull back before the final bullish surge of Wave V. His target for this correction’s bottom? A painful range of $71,000 to $84,000, a sharp drop from current levels. Glover doesn’t mince words:

“From the breakdown of wave C within this corrective pattern, it seems like another leg lower is likely.”

Adding fuel to the bearish fire, Nic Puckrin from Coin Bureau notes that Bitcoin has already cracked below a key support level at $94,000—a price “floor” where buyers typically step in to halt further drops. The next stronghold is around $88,000, and if that fails, things could get ugly fast. Puckrin’s take is stark:

“From here, it’s likely we’ll see further downside unless buyers step in, with strong support around $88,000.”

For traders glued to their screens, a few critical levels loom large. A breakout above $104,000 would signal Wave V is underway, reigniting bullish fever. But a tumble below $80,000 could drag Bitcoin down to the low $70,000s, testing the resolve of even the staunchest HODLers. These aren’t just numbers; they’re psychological battlegrounds where market sentiment flips from hope to despair—or vice versa—in a heartbeat. For a deeper dive into the potential for further downside, check out this analysis on Bitcoin’s current wave patterns.

But let’s pump the brakes on the chart worship for a second. Elliott Wave Theory, while popular, isn’t gospel. It’s subjective as hell, and crypto’s wild volatility often laughs in the face of neat wave patterns. On-chain data, like wallet activity or exchange inflows, might tell a different story—perhaps accumulation by big players at these lower levels. So, while the wave analysis offers a roadmap, don’t bet the farm on it. Bitcoin doesn’t care about your fancy lines.

Macro Mayhem: Why Bitcoin’s Taking a Beating

Beyond the charts, Bitcoin’s woes are tied to a world on edge. Investors are running scared—a classic “risk-off” mood where they ditch volatile assets like crypto for safer bets like gold, which is soaring right now. What’s spooking them? Start with geopolitical fireworks: US-China tensions are simmering, and former President Donald Trump’s bizarre threats to annex Greenland—yes, an entire icy territory—aren’t helping. Apparently, world domination is back on the menu, and markets hate the uncertainty. Add in strained US-Europe relations and murmurs of new tariffs, and you’ve got a recipe for panic. This chaos directly pressures Bitcoin, as seen in its slip below $94,000 this week, while altcoins across the board bleed even worse.

Then there’s the mess in the US itself. The Federal Reserve, often a stabilizing force, is caught in a political storm with Chair Jerome Powell under criminal investigation. This isn’t just gossip—it raises fears of a “politicized dollar,” where trust in the US currency erodes under political meddling. Imagine a world where the Fed isn’t an impartial referee but a pawn in Washington’s games. That’s the kind of institutional decay that spooks investors. Upcoming US PCE inflation data—a key gauge of price pressures—could add more fuel to the fire if it signals persistent economic pain. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan might intervene to prop up the yen or tighten policy (think higher interest rates to fight inflation), potentially strengthening the dollar and making Bitcoin less appealing as a speculative play in the short term.

So, is it time to panic-sell, or is this just another dip to buy? Short term, the odds lean bearish—global instability isn’t Bitcoin’s friend. But let’s not forget: every crisis that shakes faith in centralized systems is a quiet win for decentralization. Which brings us to the bigger picture.

The Long Game: Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Collapse

Amid the doom and gloom, there’s a compelling case for Bitcoin’s enduring value. Samer Hasn, a senior market analyst at XS.com, argues that the very forces tanking BTC right now—political risks, loss of Fed autonomy—could cement its role as a safe haven over time. A politicized dollar isn’t just a buzzword; it’s a potential death knell for the US currency’s global dominance as a reserve. Historically, shocks like Nixon’s 1971 move to unlink the dollar from gold sowed seeds of distrust in fiat. If investors today lose faith in US government debt or the Fed’s independence, where do they turn? Hasn has a clear answer:

“For the crypto markets, this ‘politicized dollar’ narrative serves as a long-term bull case, even if current prices are dipping. If investors lose faith in U.S. government debt and the Fed’s autonomy, decentralized assets like Bitcoin and ‘hard’ assets like gold… become the logical hedge against institutional decay.”

He also nails a broader shift in market drivers:

“Ultimately, we see a shift from ‘market fundamentals’ to ‘geopolitical theater’ as the primary driver of price action.”

Bitcoin’s decentralized nature—free from any government’s whims—makes it a middle finger to failing systems. Unlike fiat, it’s not beholden to a central bank’s screw-ups or a politician’s agenda. And the fundamentals back this up: Bitcoin’s hash rate, a measure of network security, continues to hit record highs, showing miners’ unwavering commitment. Institutional adoption, from spot ETFs to corporate treasuries, hasn’t vanished despite price dips. This isn’t blind hopium; it’s a reminder that Bitcoin’s value isn’t just tied to today’s candlestick charts but to a vision of financial sovereignty.

That said, let’s not pretend BTC is a flawless savior. Its volatility can gut your portfolio faster than a meme coin rug pull, and scaling issues still haunt it. As a Bitcoin maximalist, I’ll always crown BTC as king—its security and network effect are unrivaled. But I’m not blind to the ecosystem. Ethereum and its staking yields, or DeFi protocols offering alternatives during BTC’s slumps, fill gaps Bitcoin isn’t built for. The crypto revolution isn’t a solo act, even if Bitcoin remains the gold standard. Just don’t come at me with shill nonsense or moonboy price predictions—those are scams, plain and simple. We’re here to push adoption with raw truth, not fairy tales.

Navigating the Storm: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

So, where do we go from here? Bitcoin’s journey has never been a lazy river—it’s a white-knuckle rapids ride, and the current geopolitical theater only ramps up the turbulence. Short-term, the bears might have the upper hand with support levels teetering and global uncertainty spiking. But beneath the noise, the case for decentralized finance grows louder. Bitcoin isn’t just a speculative gamble; it’s a bet on a future where power isn’t hoarded by suits in marble buildings.

Whether we’re mired in Wave IV or on the brink of Wave V, one thing’s clear: the fight for financial freedom is messy, brutal, and far from over. Bitcoin stands at the forefront, dents and all. If the dollar gets twisted by politics, could BTC step up as a neutral global reserve—or are we still decades from that pipe dream? That’s the million-dollar question, and Bitcoin’s price action is just one piece of the puzzle.

Key Questions and Takeaways

• What’s the Elliott Wave Theory, and where is Bitcoin in its cycle?
  It’s a technical model predicting market cycles via five bullish waves and three corrections. Analysts say Bitcoin’s in Wave IV, a pullback phase targeting $71,000-$84,000, before a potential Wave V surge above $104,000.
• Why are geopolitical risks hammering Bitcoin’s price?
  US-China tensions and wildcards like Greenland annexation threats create a risk-off mood, pushing investors to gold over speculative assets like BTC, as seen in its drop below $94,000.
• How does Federal Reserve drama affect crypto?
  Uncertainty over Fed autonomy and a politicized dollar could erode trust in fiat, driving long-term interest in Bitcoin as a decentralized alternative despite current bearish pressure.
• Which Bitcoin price levels matter most right now?
  Key thresholds are $104,000 (Wave V confirmation), $80,000 (bearish drop to low $70,000s), and $88,000 (next major support after $94,000 broke).
• Can Bitcoin really hedge against institutional decay?
  Yes—its independence from centralized control makes it a counterweight to failing trust in systems like the Fed, especially if the US dollar faces political interference.