Galaxy Digital Cuts CLARITY Act Odds to 60% as Senate Time Runs Out

Galaxy Digital has trimmed its outlook for the CLARITY Act, warning that the Senate may simply run out of time to push crypto’s key market structure bill across the finish line.

• Odds cut to 60%
• July is the critical window
• August recess could stall momentum
• Ethics and illicit finance are still unresolved
• 60 Senate votes are still needed

Galaxy Digital now estimates there is a 60% chance the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026, down from 75% just weeks after it had raised the figure on May 22. That shift is less about outright opposition and more about a brutal political truth: Congress can support something in principle and still choke it to death on the calendar.

For readers new to the fight, the CLARITY Act is a crypto market structure bill — meaning it aims to set rules for how digital assets are classified and regulated in the U.S. In plain English, it’s meant to help answer the messy question crypto has been stuck with for years: which tokens are securities, which are commodities, and which regulator gets to swing the hammer first. Without that clarity, builders, exchanges, and investors are left guessing while Washington keeps pretending confusion is a strategy.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, said the Senate needs to move in July if the bill is going to have a realistic shot.

“On May 22, we raised our estimate of the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 75% … We are now lowering that estimate to 60%.” — Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital

“Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess.” — Alex Thorn

That’s the heart of the problem. The Senate doesn’t just vote on a bill and call it a day. First comes floor debate — when the full Senate discusses the measure — then the amendment process, where lawmakers can try to change the text, and then the final push for a vote. On top of that, major legislation in the Senate often needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, which is the procedural rule that lets a determined minority slow or block action. In other words, even a bill with bipartisan support can be buried under procedure, scheduling, and political cowardice.

The bill already cleared one important hurdle when the Senate Banking Committee advanced it in a 15-9 bipartisan vote. That is meaningful. It shows there is at least a coalition willing to talk seriously about crypto policy instead of shouting “innovation!” or “fraud!” and calling it a day. But committee approval is not the same as floor time, and floor time is where bills go to live or die.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to carve out time in July if the CLARITY Act is going to move. That’s where the real bottleneck sits: not ideological purity tests, but the ancient Washington art of making a small window even smaller. Once lawmakers head into the August recess, momentum usually gets shoved into a drawer and forgotten. After that, election-season politics kick in, and suddenly everyone is too busy fundraising, grandstanding, or dodging controversial votes to do actual work.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the loudest crypto allies in the Senate, is still pushing for action and said:

“the floor is next”

She also told CNBC that lawmakers are still working through concerns around ethics and illicit finance. Those are not just throwaway buzzwords. Ethics provisions often touch on conflicts of interest, lobbying, and political influence, while illicit finance rules deal with money laundering, sanctions evasion, terrorist financing, and the broader know-your-customer / anti-money-laundering framework. Translation: the bill still has some nasty knots that need to be untangled before enough senators feel safe voting yes.

The stakes are bigger than one piece of legislation. The CLARITY Act sits at the center of the long-running U.S. fight over crypto regulation and digital asset legislation. The industry has been begging for a framework that replaces enforcement-by-ambush with actual rules. That’s not a radical ask. It’s how functional markets are supposed to work. A serious legal structure would help define where the SEC ends and the CFTC begins, and that matters for everything from token issuance to exchange listings to how builders decide whether to stay in the U.S. or set up shop somewhere less hostile.

Without that clarity, America keeps doing the same stupid dance: regulators stretch old laws over new technology, companies guess at the rules, lawsuits pile up, and everyone acts surprised that innovation migrates elsewhere. Shocking, really.

Galaxy is not the only outfit getting less bullish on the odds. JPMorgan reportedly put the chances of passage this year at less than 50%. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said some Washington insiders see the odds anywhere from 5% to 30%. Those numbers are a lot closer to “don’t bet the farm” than “break out the champagne.” They also show how fragile the legislative path looks once you strip away the usual crypto-market optimism and stare at the actual mechanics.

There is still a path forward, but it is narrow. If Senate leadership makes room in July, if the remaining policy fights are settled without gutting the coalition, and if the bill survives the procedural grind long enough to reach a vote, the CLARITY Act could still make it through. The bipartisan committee vote proves there is at least some appetite for progress. That matters. Crypto policy in Washington has spent years being treated like a toxic side quest, so even a limited opening is worth watching.

Still, the main threat here is not some dramatic public takedown. It’s inertia. It’s scheduling. It’s the kind of legislative limbo that kills bills quietly while everyone points fingers and blames “complexity.” In reality, the Senate often doesn’t need to defeat a bill if it can just delay it long enough for the calendar to do the dirty work.

For the crypto industry, the message is blunt: if you want U.S. crypto market structure rules, July is the month that matters. Miss it, and the odds drop fast.

• What is the CLARITY Act?
  It is a proposed crypto market structure bill that would help define how digital assets are classified and regulated in the U.S.
• Why did Galaxy cut its odds?
  Galaxy lowered its estimate to 60% because the Senate may not have enough time to complete the needed steps before the August recess.
• Why is July so important?
  The Senate likely needs to act in July to leave enough room for floor debate, amendments, and a final vote before the calendar gets jammed.
• What are the biggest roadblocks?
  Senate floor time, unresolved ethics language, illicit finance provisions, and the need to secure at least 60 votes.
• Why does the crypto industry care so much?
  The bill could bring clearer U.S. rules for digital assets, reducing regulatory uncertainty and making it easier for builders and investors to operate.
• Is the bill dead?
  No, but the path is tighter and more politically fragile than it looked a few weeks ago.