Daily Crypto News & Musings

Latest News and Articles about Prediction Markets

EU Weighs MiCA Expansion to DeFi, Prediction Markets and Crypto Perps

The European Union is weighing whether DeFi, prediction markets, and crypto perpetual futures should fall under MiCA, its main crypto rulebook. Translation: Brussels is trying to decide how far its grip on onchain markets should reach before the lawyers, traders, and protocol builders all start yelling at once. EU crypto regulation: MiCA may expand into […]

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U.S. Soldier Faces Dec. 7 Trial for Alleged Polymarket Insider Trading on Venezuela Bets

A Manhattan federal court has set a Dec. 7 trial for Gannon Van Dyke, the active-duty U.S. Army soldier accused of using classified intelligence to profit from Polymarket bets tied to Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro. Trial date: Dec. 7 in Manhattan federal court Defendant: Gannon Van Dyke, 38, active-duty U.S. Army soldier Allegation: Used classified […]

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Kalshi Faces Regulator Referral Over Influencer Ads Amid Crypto Derivatives Expansion

Kalshi is getting a reminder that fast growth in finance comes with boring little things like disclosure rules, and regulators do not treat “oops, the influencer forgot the ad label” as a charming personality quirk. NAD referral: Kalshi refused a voluntary review of influencer ads Disclosure issue: Paid ties may not have been clearly revealed […]

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Kalshi Sues Minnesota Over Prediction Markets Ban and Criminal Penalties

Kalshi has sued Minnesota over a new law that would restrict prediction markets and impose criminal penalties on people involved in certain event-based contracts, setting up a blunt fight over who gets to regulate this fast-growing corner of finance. Kalshi vs. Minnesota — federal oversight or state gambling law? Criminal penalties could hit users, businesses, […]

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Trump Backs Prediction Markets as CFTC, States Clash Over Kalshi and Polymarket

Donald Trump has jumped into the prediction markets fight, backing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket while Washington and the states claw over who gets to regulate them. Trump backs prediction markets as part of America’s crypto push CFTC vs. state regulators is the core legal battle Kalshi and Polymarket are at the center of the […]

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Outpoll Brings Trading Tools, USDC Settlement and APIs to Prediction Markets

Outpoll wants to make prediction markets feel less like a gimmick and more like an actual trading venue for real-world events, complete with automation, risk controls, and creator-driven markets. That’s a serious pitch in a sector that still suffers from thin liquidity, trust issues, and more vaporware than it cares to admit. YES/NO contracts on […]

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Kalshi Backs Lobbying Push as Prediction Markets Face Legal Crackdown

Kalshi is turning up the pressure in Washington, backing a new lobbying group as prediction markets face a growing pile-up of legal, political, and regulatory threats. Kalshi backs Americans for Fair Markets Taylor Budowich joins as strategic advisor CFTC oversight is the main goal Congress is probing Kalshi and Polymarket State gambling fights are heating […]

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CFTC Crypto Oversight Faces Heat Over Polymarket, Prediction Markets and Enforcement Pullback

CFTC crypto oversight is under fresh scrutiny after a New York Times report said senior officials who raised concerns about prediction market firms were sidelined, investigated, and pushed out. The dispute reaches Polymarket, Crypto.com, and a Gemini affiliate, while a broader fight over prediction markets, crypto regulation, and federal versus state authority keeps getting messier. […]

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Hyperliquid, Solana and PredictMarkets: Q2 2026 Crypto Forecasts Explained

Hyperliquid, Solana, and PredictMarkets are being framed as three very different crypto forecasts for Q2 2026: one built on trading infrastructure, one on large-cap ecosystem strength, and one on a high-risk presale tied to prediction markets. Hyperliquid — performance-first trading onchain Solana — large-cap strength with real-world use PredictMarkets — speculative presale riding prediction market […]

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Polymarket Exploit Drains $700K, Raising Fears of Market Manipulation

Polymarket got hit by a contract exploit that drained more than $600,000 in crypto, with losses climbing close to $700,000, but the real scare was what could have happened if the attacker had twisted market resolution permissions. Losses: more than $600K drained, nearly $700K total Target: Polymarket’s UMA CTF Adapter on Polygon Main risk: compromised […]

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Polymarket and Nasdaq Private Market Launch Prediction Markets for Private Company Valuations

Polymarket is pushing prediction markets into one of finance’s murkiest corners: private-company valuations, IPO timing, and secondary trading activity. A new exclusive deal with Nasdaq Private Market gives traders a way to bet on unicorn outcomes before those companies ever hit public markets. Exclusive partnership: Polymarket teams up with Nasdaq Private Market New markets: private-company […]

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SEC, CFTC, BlackRock Tokenization, and Bitcoin’s Mining Pressure Mount

U.S. regulators are moving closer together on prediction markets just as Wall Street doubles down on tokenization, Bitcoin miners face harsher economics, and stablecoins keep creeping toward the center of global finance. SEC and CFTC coordination could expand enforcement risk for prediction markets BlackRock tokenization pushes Ethereum deeper into TradFi plumbing Bitcoin price action above […]

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CFTC Moves to Protect Non-Custodial Wallets, Clamps Down on Prediction Markets

The CFTC is moving toward formal protections for some non-custodial crypto wallet developers, with Phantom potentially becoming the template for actual rules instead of a one-off no-action letter. At the same time, the agency is taking a hard line on prediction markets, telling states to back off and let federal law do its job. Phantom-style […]

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Coinbase Presses CFTC for Clear Prediction Market Rules Amid State Gambling Clash

Coinbase is pressing the CFTC to draw a clean line around prediction markets, arguing the products already belong under federal derivatives law and don’t need Congress to reinvent the wheel. Coinbase filed on April 30 with the CFTC on prediction markets and event-based derivatives No new legislation needed, Coinbase says — the agency already has […]

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CFTC Prediction Market Clash Pits Kalshi, Polymarket Against State Regulators

The CFTC’s push to formalize prediction market event contracts has triggered a messy but important showdown over who gets to control one of crypto’s most interesting—and most controversial—market ideas. More than 1,500 public comments were filed on the CFTC prediction market rules proposal. Kalshi, Polymarket, and a16z want the CFTC to keep sole federal control. […]

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Polymarket’s Seoul Mayor Market Tops $33.67M as Crypto Bets on Politics Grow

Polymarket’s Seoul mayoral market has surged past $33.67 million in volume, turning South Korean politics into a live crypto price feed and, depending on your politics, either a brutally honest signal or a very expensive mess. Seoul race volume: about $33.67 million, or roughly 46 billion won Market leader: Jung Won-oh near 87% implied odds […]

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Polymarket Seeks U.S. Access to Main Exchange Amid Regulatory Heat

Polymarket is trying to bring its main exchange back into the U.S. market, and this time it wants the real door opened, not the side entrance. Main U.S. access: Polymarket wants direct approval for its core global exchange. Big money, big legitimacy: ICE invested heavily after Polymarket bought a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. Regulatory heat: […]

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CFTC Staff Cuts Raise Alarm as Prediction Markets and Crypto Oversight Weaken

The CFTC is shrinking fast just as prediction markets, crypto-linked trading, and politically loaded wagers are getting harder to police. That is not exactly the kind of timing that inspires confidence. CFTC staffing down 24% since Trump returned to office Experienced enforcement lawyers were hit hardest Prediction markets are expanding as insider-trading concerns rise Lawmakers […]

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NY Attorney General Sues Coinbase, Gemini Over Prediction Markets as Illegal Gambling

NY Attorney General Slams Coinbase and Gemini with Lawsuit Over Prediction Markets, Alleging Illegal Gambling The New York Attorney General has unleashed a legal bombshell on two titans of the crypto world, Coinbase and Gemini, accusing them of running what amounts to illegal gambling operations under the guise of prediction markets. This lawsuit isn’t just […]

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